The capacity calculations in the urban reserves analysis are based on existing development patterns inside the UGB over a ten-year period completed for the previous UGB expansion analysis, included in the adopted Buildable Lands Inventory and acknowledged by the state of Oregon in January 2018. This was the best data we had when urban reserves analysis began in 2018, and when Council and the Board of Commissioners initiated the adoption process in 2020.
House Bill 2001 allows Eugene to develop more densely in areas previously zoned for single-family residential uses. New middle housing code amendments were finalized in June 2022 and began to take effect then. These code amendments may affect overall city density, how much land is needed when the UGB expands, and how quickly we would need to expand into urban reserves. However, there is no way yet to know future development patterns or market conditions. Because of this uncertainty, the bill states that local jurisdictions can increase their density estimations by only 3%, which may impact the amount of land needed at the next UGB analysis.
When it is time to do this analysis, new Growth Monitoring data will be used, which will include any changes in development patterns and densities, including from new middle housing code amendments.